NYJJets
2-10
24
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
32°F
17 mph
30
MINVikings
5-7
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
32°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
10
3
3
6
0
22
Vikings
8
7
0
3
6
24
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
411
Total Plays
74
58
Yards / Play
5.5
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.10
Passing Yards
242
297
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
11.0
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.46
Rushing Yards
168
114
Rush Attempts
42
28
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.75
-5.48
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-12
-12
Sack EPA
-4.13
-3.68
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
70
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-5.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model71.1%
Spread Pick
Vikings-4.5
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,339
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+32.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.4
Away QB Adjustment
-15.2
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
156.6
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
24
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
29
18
EPA / Rush
10
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
10
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Vikings Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
24
24
EPA / Rush
2
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
13
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U