DETLions
1-0
19
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
15 mph
27
SF49ers
1-0
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
6
0
3
10
19
49ers
7
7
3
10
27
Spread
-7
Total
PUSH
46
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
349
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.16
Passing Yards
214
201
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.27
Rushing Yards
82
148
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.44
-4.83
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-25
Sack EPA
-2.52
-2.26
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
67
62
Penalty EPA
-8.60
-5.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3
EPA
EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
21
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
12
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
7
27
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
1
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
2
23
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
32
RZ Efficiency
16
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U