DETLions
2-12
6
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
5 mph
20
SF49ers
6-8
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
0
0
3
6
49ers
3
3
14
0
20
Spread
14
P
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
310
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
4.4
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.17
Passing Yards
175
226
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.71
+0.19
Rushing Yards
114
84
Rush Attempts
31
32
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
17%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-24.09
-4.93
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-4
Sack EPA
-6.35
-1.27
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
29
Penalty EPA
--
-6.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+326
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,242
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-68.8
Home QB Adjustment
-27.8
Away QB Adjustment
+41.0
Market Regression
+54.5
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+41.0
No recent game data available
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-27.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
25
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
24
2
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
21
31
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
9
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
6
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U