DETLions
-
14
TBD
Soldier Field
75°F
10 mph
19
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
75°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
0
0
14
Bears
3
10
0
6
19
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
168
463
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
2.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.19
Passing Yards
148
362
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.16
Rushing Yards
20
101
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
1.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.53
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
29%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
3
Turnover EPA
-12.92
-17.72
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-23
-10
Sack EPA
-4.61
-8.16
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
40
100
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-4.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
Bears-6.5
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+266
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,282
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
-6.2
Final Difference
217.0
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
19
5
EPA / Rush
17
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
12
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
23
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
2-6-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U