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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bears week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
-
14
TBD
Soldier Field
75°F
10 mph
19
CHIBears
-
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
75°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
0
0
14
Bears
3
10
0
6
19

Spread

DET logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
168
463
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
2.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.19
Passing Yards
148
362
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.16
Rushing Yards
20
101
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
1.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.53
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
29%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
3
Turnover EPA
-12.92
-17.72
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-23
-10
Sack EPA
-4.61
-8.16
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
40
100
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-4.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+267
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,283
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
-7.3
Final Difference
216.9
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
Value
Ptile
09/13
-7.1
10
09/20
-4.0
24
09/27
2.5
66
10/04
-0.1
48
11/01
-5.6
16
11/08
-10.1
3
11/15
0.5
54
11/22
8.1
92
11/26
-8.3
7
12/06
-8.9
5
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
11/01
-4.3
23
11/08
4.9
81
11/12
-7.3
9
11/22
-1.3
42
11/29
-4.4
22
12/06
-3.6
27
12/13
-1.4
40
12/20
-11.3
1
12/28
4.0
75
01/03
5.3
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2

EPA

EPA / Play
20
1
EPA / Pass
19
5
EPA / Rush
17
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24

EPA

EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
12
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
23
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
2-6-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-7
L
L
U
11/08
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-17
L
P
U
11/22
1
W
L
O
11/26
-22
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
W
U
12/13
-45
L
L
O
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/27
-14
L
P
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
24
W
W
U
11/08
-20
L
L
O
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-4
L
L
U
11/29
-26
L
L
U
12/06
8
W
L
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/20
-24
L
L
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/03
14
W
W
O