DETLions
1-2
24
TBD
Soldier Field
53°F
14 mph
48
CHIBears
2-1
TBD
Soldier Field
53°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
7
0
3
24
Bears
7
14
13
14
48
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
276
Total Plays
78
50
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.38
Passing Yards
308
125
Comp/Att
30/47(64%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.09
Rushing Yards
90
151
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.5
7.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
41%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.49
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-42
-16
Sack EPA
-10.50
-2.62
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-4.36
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
Bears-10.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,300
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
270.2
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
25
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
21
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-2-7
O/U