nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bears week 4, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DET logo
DETLions
1-2
24
TBD
Soldier Field
53°F
14 mph
48
CHIBears
2-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
53°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
7
0
3
24
Bears
7
14
13
14
48

Spread

CHI logo
-10

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
398
276
Total Plays
78
50
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.38
Passing Yards
308
125
Comp/Att
30/47(64%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.09
Rushing Yards
90
151
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.5
7.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
41%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.49
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-42
-16
Sack EPA
-10.50
-2.62
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-4.36
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+307
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,299
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-30.6
Final Difference
269.4
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
09/13
-7.1
10
09/20
-4.0
24
09/27
2.5
66
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
Value
Ptile
11/16
2.8
70
11/23
-2.1
35
11/30
5.8
87
12/07
7.0
90
12/14
-2.7
29
12/21
6.1
88
12/28
2.2
67
09/13
-6.5
13
09/20
5.4
84
09/27
4.3
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24

EPA

EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
25
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
21
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
25
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-9
L
W
P
11/23
-18
L
L
P
11/27
-37
L
L
P
12/07
-4
L
W
P
12/14
-10
L
W
P
12/21
-35
L
L
P
12/28
-10
L
W
P
09/13
-18
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
5
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-34
L
L
P
11/23
24
W
W
P
11/30
-20
L
L
P
12/07
13
W
W
P
12/11
3
W
P
P
12/22
3
W
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
6
W
W
O