DETLions
6-2
13
TBD
Soldier Field
69°F
22 mph
37
CHIBears
5-3
TBD
Soldier Field
69°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
6
0
7
13
Bears
10
4
5
0
19
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
216
Total Plays
88
57
Yards / Play
4.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.17
Passing Yards
321
107
Comp/Att
35/66(53%)
9/20(45%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.18
Rushing Yards
80
109
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
17
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
22%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
17%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-30.07
-4.93
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-16
Sack EPA
-2.63
-2.82
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
53
37
Penalty EPA
-5.60
+1.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
Lions+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+18.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
7.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
4
17
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
9
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
19
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U