DETLions
3-4
13
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
12 mph
20
CHIBears
3-5
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
3
0
7
13
Bears
0
7
13
0
20
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
226
Total Plays
75
52
Yards / Play
4.8
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.14
Passing Yards
259
145
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.05
Rushing Yards
98
81
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
39%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.78
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-28
Sack EPA
-3.49
-8.59
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
76
57
Penalty EPA
-7.10
-7.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model73.7%
Spread Pick
Bears-6.5
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+36.4
Base HFA
+50.6
Divisional Adj
-22.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
-9.1
Net QB Adjustment
+130.9
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-145.7
Market Regression
+33.9
Final Difference
179.2
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-145.7
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
23
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
29
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U