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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bears week 10, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-4
13
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
12 mph
20
CHIBears
3-5
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
3
0
7
13
Bears
0
7
13
0
20

Spread

CHI logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
357
226
Total Plays
75
52
Yards / Play
4.8
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.14
Passing Yards
259
145
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.05
Rushing Yards
98
81
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
39%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.78
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-28
Sack EPA
-3.49
-8.59
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
76
57
Penalty EPA
-7.10
-7.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+36.4
Base HFA
+50.6
Divisional Adj
-22.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
-9.1
Net QB Adjustment
+130.9
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-145.7
Market Regression
+33.4
Final Difference
180.6
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Driskel headshot

J. Driskel

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-145.7
Value
Ptile
12/02
-3.4
25
12/09
-1.3
37
12/16
-7.0
10
12/23
-1.5
36
12/30
-8.5
7
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Value
Ptile
12/23
1.2
54
12/30
1.7
59
01/06
0.9
52
09/05
-8.2
8
09/15
-3.0
31
09/23
1.3
62
09/29
-5.6
17
10/20
1.3
63
10/27
-4.9
20
11/03
-7.5
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9

EPA

EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
27
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
23
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
29
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
24
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-18
L
L
U
12/30
31
W
W
U
09/08
0
T
L
O
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-4
L
W
O
10/14
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-12
L
L
O
10/27
5
W
L
O
11/03
-7
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
-1
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/23
16
W
W
O
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-11
L
L
O
10/27
-1
L
L
U
11/03
-8
L
L
U