DETLions
2-6
31
TBD
Soldier Field
34°F
13 mph
30
CHIBears
3-6
TBD
Soldier Field
34°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
0
15
25
Bears
3
7
14
6
30
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
408
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
5.5
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.05
Passing Yards
228
150
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
12/20(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.68
-0.19
Rushing Yards
95
258
Rush Attempts
31
35
Yards / Rush
3.1
7.4
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
12
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
45%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.96
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-2.49
-5.72
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
15
86
Penalty EPA
-1.87
-9.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+28.3
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+18.1
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
25
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
4
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
21
30
EPA / Pass
32
24
EPA / Rush
2
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
30
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U