DETLions
6-9
24
TBD
Soldier Field
31°F
15 mph
20
CHIBears
6-9
TBD
Soldier Field
31°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
7
7
24
Bears
0
0
10
10
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
342
Total Plays
64
52
Yards / Play
5.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.08
Passing Yards
282
231
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.04
Rushing Yards
67
111
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-12.56
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-16
-14
Sack EPA
-3.81
-5.01
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
21
--
Penalty EPA
-2.83
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
-54.4
Final Difference
-38.4
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
26
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U