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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bears week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
8-8
+3.0
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0
-3.0
CHIBears
11-5
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+25.5
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Value
Ptile
10/20
-4.5
21
11/02
0.0
51
11/09
8.5
95
11/16
-5.1
16
11/23
-0.7
45
11/27
4.3
78
12/04
2.5
68
12/14
6.4
90
12/21
4.9
84
12/25
-7.3
7
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Value
Ptile
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
5.8
88
11/09
5.5
86
11/16
-3.4
26
11/23
3.4
75
11/28
-5.2
16
12/07
0.1
52
12/14
4.3
78
12/20
4.3
79
12/28
4.6
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28

EPA

EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
25
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
29
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
3
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16

EPA

EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
4
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
19
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
15
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/09
22
W
W
O
11/16
-7
L
L
U
11/23
7
W
L
O
11/27
-7
L
L
O
12/04
14
W
W
O
12/14
-7
L
L
O
12/21
-5
L
L
O
12/25
-13
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/02
5
W
W
O
11/09
4
W
L
U
11/16
2
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
P
O
11/28
9
W
W
U
12/07
-7
L
L
O
12/14
28
W
W
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/28
-4
L
L
O