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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bengals week 13, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
2-9
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
34°F
7 mph
23
CINBengals
8-3
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
34°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
0
6
13
Bengals
0
11
3
3
17

Spread

DET logo
+13.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
245
321
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.11
Passing Yards
165
202
Comp/Att
13/30(43%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.18
Rushing Yards
80
119
Rush Attempts
20
44
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.81
-12.02
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-27
-18
Sack EPA
-3.72
-5.93
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
45
75
Penalty EPA
-4.85
-5.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+326
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,245
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
-16.6
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
09/13
-7.1
10
09/20
-4.0
24
09/27
2.5
66
10/04
-0.1
48
11/01
-5.6
16
11/08
-10.1
3
11/15
0.5
54
11/22
8.1
92
11/26
-8.3
7
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
09/20
1.9
63
09/27
-0.8
45
10/04
-0.3
47
10/11
1.9
63
10/18
1.2
57
10/25
11.6
98
11/08
2.5
66
11/15
-2.0
38
11/22
0.8
55
11/29
-4.3
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Lions logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
25
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
22
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
32
12
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Bengals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
24
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25

EPA

EPA / Play
19
29
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
12
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
21
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
-24
L
L
O
10/11
-8
L
W
O
10/18
-26
L
L
U
11/01
-7
L
L
U
11/08
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-17
L
P
U
11/22
1
W
L
O
11/26
-22
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-11
L
L
U
10/25
35
W
W
O
11/08
10
W
W
U
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
9
W
L
U