DETLions
2-9
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
34°F
7 mph
23
CINBengals
8-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
34°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
0
6
13
Bengals
0
11
3
3
17
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
321
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.11
Passing Yards
165
202
Comp/Att
13/30(43%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.18
Rushing Yards
80
119
Rush Attempts
20
44
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.81
-12.02
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-27
-18
Sack EPA
-3.72
-5.93
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
45
75
Penalty EPA
-4.85
-5.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+326
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,245
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
-16.6
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
25
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
22
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
32
12
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
24
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
29
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U