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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bengals week 16, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
8-6
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
35°F
2 mph
26
CINBengals
5-9
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
35°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
3
7
17
Bengals
0
6
7
13
26

Spread

CIN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
276
364
Total Plays
59
78
Yards / Play
4.7
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.02
Passing Yards
189
222
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.03
Rushing Yards
87
142
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.08
-4.80
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-16
Sack EPA
-3.27
-4.36
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
74
60
Penalty EPA
-8.42
-6.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-17.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
10/08
-2.5
35
10/15
-7.9
8
10/29
5.1
84
11/06
7.5
92
11/12
-0.5
48
11/19
3.1
75
11/23
-1.6
41
12/03
2.7
72
12/10
6.2
88
12/16
1.6
64
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Value
Ptile
10/08
-0.3
50
10/22
-6.5
13
10/29
-0.5
48
11/05
-3.4
28
11/12
2.1
68
11/19
0.4
54
11/26
3.0
74
12/04
2.9
74
12/10
-6.5
14
12/17
-10.4
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Lions logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
8
17
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30

EPA

EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
32
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
16
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Bengals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
32
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19

EPA

EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
28
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
13
3
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
11
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-14
L
L
O
10/29
-5
L
L
U
11/06
13
W
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
P
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
-24
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/16
10
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
4
W
W
U
10/22
-15
L
L
O
10/29
1
W
L
O
11/05
-16
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/26
14
W
W
O
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/10
-26
L
L
U
12/17
-27
L
L
U