DETLions
8-6
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
35°F
2 mph
26
CINBengals
5-9
TBD
Paycor Stadium
35°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
3
7
17
Bengals
0
6
7
13
26
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
364
Total Plays
59
78
Yards / Play
4.7
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.02
Passing Yards
189
222
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.03
Rushing Yards
87
142
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.08
-4.80
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-16
Sack EPA
-3.27
-4.36
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
74
60
Penalty EPA
-8.42
-6.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+55.9
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-17.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
17
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
32
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
16
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
32
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
13
3
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
11
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U