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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bills week 10, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
2-6
12
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
12 mph
14
BUFBills
0-8
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
0
9
12
Bills
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

BUF logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
390
288
Total Plays
78
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.16
Passing Yards
314
139
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
12/24(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.02
Rushing Yards
76
149
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
26%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.07
-2.83
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-1.88
-2.15
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
60
30
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-2.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
09/20
-2.4
35
09/27
1.3
58
10/04
-3.2
30
10/11
-5.2
20
10/25
-6.5
13
09/19
1.3
56
09/26
-0.3
47
10/03
5.3
84
10/10
6.0
87
10/17
-0.4
47
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Value
Ptile
12/03
-6.7
12
12/13
-5.4
18
12/20
-3.7
25
01/03
4.6
80
09/26
2.2
63
10/03
1.7
58
10/10
1.7
59
10/24
9.8
97
10/31
-2.5
32
11/07
0.5
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bills Defense
Lions logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
15
28
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32

EPA

EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
17
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Bills Offense vs Lions Defense
Bills logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
28
6
EPA / Rush
23
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
21
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

2-8
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-14
L
P
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
W
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
O
10/10
38
W
W
O
10/17
-8
L
W
O
10/31
12
W
W
O
11/07
-3
L
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
23
W
W
O
09/12
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-27
L
L
U
09/26
-8
L
W
O
10/03
-24
L
L
O
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/24
-3
L
W
O
10/31
-3
L
W
U
11/07
-3
L
P
U