DETLions
2-6
12
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
12 mph
14
BUFBills
0-8
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
0
9
12
Bills
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
288
Total Plays
78
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.16
Passing Yards
314
139
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
12/24(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.02
Rushing Yards
76
149
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
26%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.07
-2.83
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-1.88
-2.15
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
60
30
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-2.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
28
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
17
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Bills Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
28
6
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U