DETLions
5-8
13
TBD
New Era Field
39°F
7 mph
14
BUFBills
4-9
TBD
New Era Field
39°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
13
0
0
13
Bills
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
312
Total Plays
56
64
Yards / Play
5.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
195
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
13/26(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.10
Rushing Yards
105
117
Rush Attempts
26
37
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.36
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-1.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
Lions+2.5
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,289
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+71.6
Home QB Adjustment
+49.1
Away QB Adjustment
-22.5
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
-4.7
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-22.5
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+49.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
23
4
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
25
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Bills Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
15
EPA / Pass
31
24
EPA / Rush
20
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
14
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
16
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U