DETLions
5-2
45
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
56°F
5 mph
10
DENBroncos
2-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
56°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
17
8
1
33
Broncos
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
312
Total Plays
62
76
Yards / Play
6.1
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.35
Passing Yards
263
117
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.91
Rushing Yards
113
195
Rush Attempts
28
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.91
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-9
-55
Sack EPA
-4.33
-16.08
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
45
55
Penalty EPA
-5.03
-7.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.1%
Spread Pick
Broncos+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-21.8
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
14
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
20
27
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Broncos Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
24
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
31
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
27
6
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
5
8
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
28
20
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U