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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ broncos week 14, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
1-10
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
8 mph
38
DENBroncos
6-6
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
10
0
0
10
Broncos
14
3
14
7
38

Spread

DEN logo
-12.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
316
358
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.31
Passing Yards
198
174
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.36
Rushing Yards
118
184
Rush Attempts
21
39
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.25
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-3.96
-1.04
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
53
18
Penalty EPA
-5.63
-5.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+12.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+64.5
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+13.5
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+57.5
Final Difference
254.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Value
Ptile
09/20
5.2
84
09/26
-0.9
46
10/03
0.8
59
10/10
-7.6
10
10/17
-3.9
25
10/24
-2.7
33
10/31
-6.0
15
11/14
-7.5
10
11/25
2.6
72
12/05
0.5
56
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
09/26
-0.5
48
10/03
-6.8
12
10/10
2.0
68
10/17
-2.0
38
10/21
-2.1
37
10/31
-3.8
25
11/07
-0.7
48
11/14
-3.0
32
11/28
-0.1
53
12/05
-4.4
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Broncos Defense
Lions logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14

EPA

EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
25
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Broncos Offense vs Lions Defense
Broncos logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
19
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28

EPA

EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
13
29
EPA / Rush
23
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
28
RZ Efficiency
21
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-8-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
-2
L
W
U
10/17
-23
L
L
U
10/24
-9
L
W
U
10/31
-38
L
L
O
11/14
0
T
W
U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
-2
L
P
U
12/05
2
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
26
W
W
U
10/03
-16
L
L
U
10/10
-8
L
L
O
10/17
-10
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
L
U
10/31
7
W
W
U
11/07
14
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/28
15
W
W
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U