DETLions
1-10
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
8 mph
38
DENBroncos
6-6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
10
0
0
10
Broncos
14
3
14
7
38
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
358
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.31
Passing Yards
198
174
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.36
Rushing Yards
118
184
Rush Attempts
21
39
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.25
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-3.96
-1.04
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
53
18
Penalty EPA
-5.63
-5.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
Lions+12.5
Expected Value
+0.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+64.6
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+13.6
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+57.4
Final Difference
254.8
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Broncos Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
19
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28
EPA
EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
13
29
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
28
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-8-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U