DETLions
3-2
31
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
66°F
8 mph
17
CLEBrowns
3-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
66°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
7
17
31
Browns
0
17
0
0
17
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
395
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
5.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.02
Passing Yards
248
269
Comp/Att
25/43(58%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.11
Rushing Yards
118
126
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.35
-7.58
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
-0.70
-3.60
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
65
87
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-8.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.6
Home QB Adjustment
-22.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
-9.9
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
23
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18
EPA
EPA / Play
19
17
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
25
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
31
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
16
RZ Efficiency
4
31
Browns Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U