DETLions
-
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
86°F
6 mph
20
TBBuccaneers
-
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
86°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
6
14
7
0
27
Buccaneers
4
3
0
7
14
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
315
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
259
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.03
Rushing Yards
126
56
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.83
-3.93
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.71
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
68
--
Penalty EPA
-5.33
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-1.5
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
35.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
32
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
14
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
21
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
31
RZ Efficiency
3
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25
EPA
EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
29
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
7
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U