DETLions
3-10
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
54°F
10 mph
20
TBBuccaneers
8-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
54°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Lions
7
3
7
3
3
23
Buccaneers
0
14
0
6
0
20
Spread
+4
Total
PUSH
43
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
403
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
6.6
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.19
Passing Yards
--
227
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.30
Rushing Yards
181
176
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
6.5
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-4.53
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-7.97
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model69.9%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+184
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+45.2
Home QB Adjustment
+19.0
Away QB Adjustment
-26.2
Market Regression
+4.8
Final Difference
146.5
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-26.2
Value
Ptile
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
7
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
1
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28
EPA
EPA / Play
20
22
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
30
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
28
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
9
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
24
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
17
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U