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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ cardinals week 2, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
1-0
21
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
25
ARICardinals
0-1
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
14
1
0
15
Cardinals
0
10
6
9
25

Spread

ARI logo
+2

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
322
348
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
273
261
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.25
Rushing Yards
49
87
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
27%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.27
-9.70
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-4
Sack EPA
-1.65
-1.14
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
101
40
Penalty EPA
-11.67
-3.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-8.4
Final Difference
5.0
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
11/04
1.0
56
11/11
4.7
80
11/18
-8.2
5
11/22
5.2
82
12/02
3.0
69
12/09
3.0
69
12/16
-7.9
6
12/22
6.0
87
12/30
3.9
75
09/08
4.4
80
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.9
Value
Ptile
10/28
-0.3
48
11/04
4.2
76
11/11
3.8
74
11/18
-3.9
25
11/25
-6.5
11
12/02
5.1
81
12/06
3.0
69
12/16
-0.8
44
12/23
-4.5
22
09/08
1.2
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Lions logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
5
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1

EPA

EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
25
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
31
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Cardinals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6

EPA

EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
26
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
24
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
17
W
W
O
11/11
-10
L
L
O
11/18
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
12/02
-2
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-28
L
L
O
12/22
-13
L
L
U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
10
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
-21
L
L
U
11/04
-14
L
L
O
11/18
-4
L
W
U
11/25
-14
L
L
O
12/02
-1
L
W
U
12/09
-58
L
L
O
12/16
28
W
W
O
12/23
-15
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
W
O
09/08
-3
L
W
O