DETLions
1-0
21
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
025
ARICardinals
0-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
14
1
0
15
Cardinals
0
10
6
9
25
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
348
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
273
261
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.25
Rushing Yards
49
87
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
27%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.27
-9.70
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-4
Sack EPA
-1.65
-1.14
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
101
40
Penalty EPA
-11.67
-3.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model49.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-3.6
Final Difference
3.0
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
5
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
25
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
31
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
26
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U