DETLions
0-2
26
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
023
ARICardinals
2-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
14
3
6
26
Cardinals
7
6
10
0
23
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
377
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.00
Passing Yards
232
268
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.12
Rushing Yards
90
109
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.94
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-38
-2
Sack EPA
-5.84
-0.93
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
46
38
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-5.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+18.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.7
Market Regression
-11.3
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
3
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
10
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
23
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
9
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-2-2
ATS
5-5
O/U