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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ cardinals week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
7-2
6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
14
ARICardinals
8-1
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
3
0
0
6
Cardinals
14
0
0
0
14

Spread

ARI logo
+1

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
262
352
Total Plays
53
58
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.08
Passing Yards
164
--
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.18
Rushing Yards
98
46
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
5.2
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
11
18
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.39
-11.32
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-4.62
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
80
35
Penalty EPA
-6.32
-3.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model46.2%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-40.0
Home QB Adjustment
-44.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
-15.9
Final Difference
26.7
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Value
Ptile
12/29
-4.4
23
09/08
8.8
94
09/14
-2.5
32
09/21
-4.9
20
09/28
4.3
79
10/05
-5.7
17
10/12
-4.9
21
10/19
-1.0
43
10/26
1.2
59
11/09
0.6
54
D. Stanton headshot

D. Stanton

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-44.9
Value
Ptile
12/27
-9.0
5
12/05
2.6
66
12/12
-3.8
25
12/19
5.7
86
09/14
-7.7
9
09/21
3.4
74
10/05
-6.6
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Lions logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17

EPA

EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
24
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
9
9
Fumbles / Game
8
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Cardinals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1

EPA

EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
31
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
11
Interceptions / Game
13
6
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
28
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-1
L
L
U
09/08
21
W
W
O
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/21
12
W
W
U
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
1
W
L
U
11/09
4
W
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-3
L
L
O
09/08
1
W
L
U
09/14
11
W
W
U
09/21
9
W
W
U
10/05
-21
L
L
O
10/12
10
W
W
O
10/19
11
W
W
U
10/26
4
W
W
U
11/02
11
W
W
P
11/09
17
W
W
O