DETLions
7-2
6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
014
ARICardinals
8-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
3
0
0
6
Cardinals
14
0
0
0
14
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
352
Total Plays
53
58
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.08
Passing Yards
164
--
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.18
Rushing Yards
98
46
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
5.2
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
18
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.39
-11.32
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-4.62
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
80
35
Penalty EPA
-6.32
-3.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model46.2%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+1.0
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-40.0
Home QB Adjustment
-44.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
-16.2
Final Difference
26.4
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-44.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
24
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
9
9
Fumbles / Game
8
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1
EPA
EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
31
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
11
Interceptions / Game
13
6
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U