DETLions
4-9
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
038
ARICardinals
4-9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
7
3
0
10
Cardinals
0
15
3
8
26
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
196
Total Plays
74
51
Yards / Play
4.2
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.45
-0.10
Passing Yards
228
97
Comp/Att
24/50(48%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.46
Rushing Yards
84
99
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
12
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-22.45
+1.66
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-4.14
-1.17
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
63
50
Penalty EPA
-7.21
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model62.3%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+6.5
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.4
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
-5.2
Final Difference
-87.0
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
R. Lindley
Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
17
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28
EPA
EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
26
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
7
3
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
21
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U