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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ cardinals week 15, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
4-9
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
38
ARICardinals
4-9
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
7
3
0
10
Cardinals
0
15
3
8
26

Spread

ARI logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
312
196
Total Plays
74
51
Yards / Play
4.2
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.45
-0.10
Passing Yards
228
97
Comp/Att
24/50(48%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.46
Rushing Yards
84
99
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
18
12
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-22.45
+1.66
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-4.14
-1.17
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
63
50
Penalty EPA
-7.21
-4.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model62.3%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.4
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
-5.2
Final Difference
-87.3
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
09/30
-0.6
46
10/14
2.9
68
10/22
1.0
56
10/28
10.2
96
11/04
1.0
56
11/11
4.7
80
11/18
-8.2
5
11/22
5.2
82
12/02
3.0
69
12/09
3.0
69
R. Lindley headshot

R. Lindley

Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Value
Ptile
11/25
-7.0
9
12/02
-11.4
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Lions logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
16
17
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28

EPA

EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
21
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
26
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
7
3
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Cardinals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
21
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
32
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
31
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-7
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/22
-6
L
W
U
10/28
4
W
W
O
11/04
17
W
W
O
11/11
-10
L
L
O
11/18
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
12/02
-2
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
U
10/21
-7
L
P
U
10/29
-21
L
L
U
11/04
-14
L
L
O
11/18
-4
L
W
U
11/25
-14
L
L
O
12/02
-1
L
W
U
12/09
-58
L
L
O