DETLions
-
28
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
84°F
10 mph
33
LACChargers
-
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
84°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
8
0
7
22
Chargers
3
7
10
13
33
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
483
Total Plays
47
74
Yards / Play
6.4
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.06
Passing Yards
233
387
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
34/41(83%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.30
Rushing Yards
69
96
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
12
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
30%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.03
-16.32
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-2.64
-3.81
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
29
40
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-3.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
+66.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
27
EPA
EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
19
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
2
7
Chargers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
7
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
16
26
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
15
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U