DETLions
-
21
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
020
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
0
1
7
15
Chiefs
0
14
3
3
20
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
316
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.10
Passing Yards
250
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.17
Rushing Yards
118
90
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.43
-8.54
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-3
--
Sack EPA
-1.29
--
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
63
--
Penalty EPA
-5.23
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+155
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+4.5
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-46.9
Final Difference
124.1
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
2
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
17
EPA
EPA / Play
8
7
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
11
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
31
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
14
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Chiefs Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
16
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
21
9
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
27
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U