DETLions
1-6
10
TBD
Wembley Stadium
50°F
2 mph
45
KCChiefs
2-5
TBD
Wembley Stadium
50°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
0
0
7
10
Chiefs
7
17
7
14
45
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
340
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.43
Passing Yards
195
134
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.15
Rushing Yards
81
206
Rush Attempts
14
32
Yards / Rush
5.8
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
17%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
--
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.66
--
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-32
-15
Sack EPA
-8.01
-4.97
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
81
20
Penalty EPA
-10.28
-1.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+10.6
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
-11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-7.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-68.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
1
Yards / Game
18
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6
EPA
EPA / Play
15
5
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
19
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
11
23
Turnover EPA / Game
13
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Chiefs Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
25
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20
EPA
EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
1
26
Fumbles / Game
7
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U