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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ colts week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
-
39
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
35
INDColts
-
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
14
7
9
37
Colts
0
10
8
17
35

Spread

DET logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
448
452
Total Plays
64
69
Yards / Play
7.0
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.40
+0.27
Passing Yards
332
370
Comp/Att
31/39(79%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.36
Rushing Yards
116
82
Rush Attempts
24
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
28
25
Passing 1st downs
20
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
56%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-1.95
-2.69
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
70
45
Penalty EPA
-4.75
-6.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+59.0
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
-50.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Value
Ptile
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
-8.2
4
11/15
2.0
65
11/22
1.0
56
11/26
10.7
97
12/03
1.9
64
12/13
-2.0
36
12/21
2.5
68
12/27
5.7
86
01/03
3.2
74
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
01/04
8.1
91
01/11
2.5
68
01/18
-9.3
5
09/13
-1.7
38
09/21
-2.6
32
09/27
-1.9
36
10/18
6.1
88
10/25
-1.7
38
11/02
-4.4
18
11/08
5.3
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Colts Defense
Lions logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25

EPA

EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
24
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
1
17
Turnover EPA / Game
25
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Colts Offense vs Lions Defense
Colts logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20

EPA

EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
18
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
7
29
Turnover EPA / Game
8
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
3
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-9
L
L
O
11/01
-35
L
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/26
31
W
W
O
12/03
-4
L
L
O
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/27
15
W
W
O
01/03
4
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-3
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
W
U
11/29
13
W
W
U
12/06
-35
L
L
O
12/13
-35
L
L
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O