DETLions
-
39
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
035
INDColts
-
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
14
7
9
37
Colts
0
10
8
17
35
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
452
Total Plays
64
69
Yards / Play
7.0
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.40
+0.27
Passing Yards
332
370
Comp/Att
31/39(79%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.36
Rushing Yards
116
82
Rush Attempts
24
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
25
Passing 1st downs
20
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
56%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-1.95
-2.69
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
70
45
Penalty EPA
-4.75
-6.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
-59.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
24
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
1
17
Turnover EPA / Game
25
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Colts Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
13
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
18
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
7
29
Turnover EPA / Game
8
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
3
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U