DETLions
9-1
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
06
INDColts
5-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
14
7
3
24
Colts
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
268
Total Plays
72
49
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.24
Passing Yards
253
--
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
11/28(39%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.09
Rushing Yards
137
96
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
11
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-4.68
--
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
45
75
Penalty EPA
-1.66
-9.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-214
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,704
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23
EPA
EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
2
27
EPA / Rush
6
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Colts Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
6
EPA
EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
23
6
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
4
RZ Efficiency
23
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U