nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ colts week 12, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DET logo
DETLions
9-1
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
6
INDColts
5-6
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
14
7
3
24
Colts
3
3
0
0
6

Spread

DET logo
-7

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
390
268
Total Plays
72
49
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.24
Passing Yards
253
--
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
11/28(39%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.09
Rushing Yards
137
96
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
26
11
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-4.68
--
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
45
75
Penalty EPA
-1.66
-9.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-210
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,702
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.2
33
09/15
-2.2
33
09/22
-0.8
43
09/30
4.4
77
10/13
6.3
85
10/20
2.8
69
10/27
-2.9
28
11/03
0.5
52
11/10
-7.5
6
11/17
13.1
99
A. Richardson headshot

A. Richardson

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Value
Ptile
09/17
2.1
64
10/01
3.8
75
10/08
-4.1
24
09/08
2.3
65
09/15
-5.5
14
09/22
-7.1
8
09/29
-2.3
32
10/20
-2.4
32
10/27
-9.1
3
11/17
7.8
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Colts Defense
Lions logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23

EPA

EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
2
27
EPA / Rush
6
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Colts Offense vs Lions Defense
Colts logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
6

EPA

EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
23
6
EPA / Rush
17
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
4
RZ Efficiency
23
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/30
13
W
W
O
10/13
38
W
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
38
W
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
U
11/17
46
W
W
O
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-6
L
L
U
09/22
5
W
W
U
09/29
3
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
3
W
W
U
10/20
6
W
W
U
10/27
-3
L
W
U
11/03
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-10
L
L
O
11/17
1
W
W
O