DETLions
1-1
27
TBD
FedExField
72°F
8 mph
20
WASCommanders
0-2
TBD
FedExField
72°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
0
10
27
Commanders
1
7
3
3
14
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
441
420
Total Plays
66
74
Yards / Play
6.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.05
Passing Yards
378
300
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.08
Rushing Yards
63
120
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
27
Passing 1st downs
18
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
31%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.45
-8.06
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-26
Sack EPA
-1.41
-1.84
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
71
45
Penalty EPA
-5.35
-8.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model43.3%
Spread Pick
Commanders+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
46.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17
EPA
EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
12
27
EPA / Rush
25
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
4
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
22
19
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U