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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ commanders week 10, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
5-3
44
TBD
FedExField
64°F
9 mph
22
WASCommanders
3-6
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
64°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
11
10
9
44
Commanders
3
7
6
6
22

Spread

DET logo
-8

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
548
288
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
8.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.55
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
195
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.69
+0.47
Rushing Yards
228
93
Rush Attempts
34
28
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
30
14
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-3.33
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
61
Penalty EPA
--
-5.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market76.2%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+57.5
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-43.2
Home QB Adjustment
-43.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.0
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
-154.3
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
Value
Ptile
01/05
-1.0
42
01/18
-4.6
19
09/07
-1.9
37
09/14
13.3
99
09/22
2.2
66
09/28
-0.3
48
10/05
2.1
65
10/12
4.6
81
10/20
-4.5
21
11/02
0.0
51
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-43.2
Value
Ptile
10/23
-2.5
32
10/30
2.8
74
11/06
-4.9
18
11/10
-2.7
30
11/20
1.1
60
11/27
-0.1
52
12/04
-3.1
28
09/21
4.5
80
09/28
-2.8
31
10/27
-2.5
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Lions logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31

EPA

EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Commanders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16

EPA

EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
7
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
23
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
7
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
22
W
W
U
01/18
-14
L
L
O
09/07
-14
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
U
10/05
13
W
W
O
10/12
-13
L
L
U
10/20
15
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/26
-32
L
L
O
09/07
15
W
W
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/21
17
W
W
O
09/28
-7
L
L
O
10/05
17
W
W
U
10/13
-1
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
O