DETLions
5-3
44
TBD
FedExField
64°F
9 mph
22
WASCommanders
3-6
TBD
FedExField
64°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
14
11
10
9
44
Commanders
3
7
6
6
22
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
548
288
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
8.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.55
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
195
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.69
+0.47
Rushing Yards
228
93
Rush Attempts
34
28
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
14
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-3.33
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
61
Penalty EPA
--
-5.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
Commanders+8.0
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+56.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-43.2
Home QB Adjustment
-43.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.0
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
-158.7
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-43.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
28
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
7
30
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
6
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
5
23
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
11
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
23
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U