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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ commanders week 12, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-6
16
TBD
FedExField
46°F
17 mph
19
WASCommanders
1-9
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
46°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
6
7
3
16
Commanders
3
10
0
6
19

Spread

WAS logo
+4

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
364
230
Total Plays
71
57
Yards / Play
5.1
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.15
Passing Yards
189
144
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.45
Rushing Yards
175
86
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.45
-8.14
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-18
-12
Sack EPA
-7.40
-7.73
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
65
63
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-7.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model61.1%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,293
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+84.4
Home QB Adjustment
-29.0
Away QB Adjustment
-113.3
Market Regression
-32.0
Final Difference
-78.2
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Driskel headshot

J. Driskel

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-113.3
Value
Ptile
12/02
-3.4
25
12/09
-1.3
37
12/16
-7.0
10
12/23
-1.5
36
12/30
-8.5
7
11/10
0.9
58
11/17
3.5
75
D. Haskins headshot

D. Haskins

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-29.0
Value
Ptile
11/03
-3.9
25
11/17
-8.7
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Lions logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31

EPA

EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
27
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Commanders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
32
26
Yards / Game
31
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
21

EPA

EPA / Play
30
23
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
24
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
10
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
27
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
0
T
L
O
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-4
L
W
O
10/14
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-12
L
L
O
10/27
5
W
L
O
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
U
11/17
-8
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-5
L
W
O
09/15
-10
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
O
09/29
-21
L
L
U
10/06
-26
L
L
U
10/13
1
W
L
U
10/20
-9
L
W
U
10/24
-10
L
W
U
11/03
-15
L
L
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O