DETLions
3-6
16
TBD
FedExField
46°F
17 mph
19
WASCommanders
1-9
TBD
FedExField
46°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
6
7
3
16
Commanders
3
10
0
6
19
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
230
Total Plays
71
57
Yards / Play
5.1
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.15
Passing Yards
189
144
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.45
Rushing Yards
175
86
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.45
-8.14
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-18
-12
Sack EPA
-7.40
-7.73
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
65
63
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-7.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model63.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,292
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+84.4
Home QB Adjustment
-29.0
Away QB Adjustment
-113.3
Market Regression
-47.5
Final Difference
-93.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-113.3
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-29.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
27
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
26
Yards / Game
31
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
21
EPA
EPA / Play
30
23
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
24
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
10
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U