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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ cowboys week 4, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
3-0
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
30
DALCowboys
2-1
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
2
17
22
Cowboys
7
13
10
0
30

Spread

DET logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
303
434
Total Plays
60
75
Yards / Play
5.0
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
321
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
34/47(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.20
Rushing Yards
63
113
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
13
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
-21.36
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.02
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
75
--
Penalty EPA
-6.85
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.2
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
Value
Ptile
11/15
0.5
54
11/22
8.1
92
11/26
-8.3
7
12/06
-8.9
5
09/12
-3.2
28
10/31
3.0
69
11/07
4.7
80
09/11
7.8
93
09/18
6.6
89
09/25
4.2
77
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
01/17
-7.7
9
09/12
4.4
78
09/19
4.0
76
09/26
7.0
90
10/10
0.6
52
10/17
6.3
88
10/25
-1.4
41
09/11
2.5
69
09/18
6.1
86
09/26
-1.8
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Lions logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6

EPA

EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
14
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
8
RZ Efficiency
3
22
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Cowboys logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
10
28
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25

EPA

EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
6
6
EPA / Rush
22
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
9
20
RZ Efficiency
19
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-16
L
L
O
11/25
-21
L
L
O
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
4
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
P
12/26
7
W
W
O
01/02
7
W
W
U
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
45
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
P
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
16
W
W
O
11/25
-3
L
W
O
12/05
3
W
W
O
12/12
-3
L
W
O
12/19
3
W
L
O
12/25
-1
L
L
O
01/02
1
W
L
U
09/11
-3
L
W
O
09/18
3
W
P
O
09/26
2
W
L
U