DETLions
3-0
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
030
DALCowboys
2-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
2
17
22
Cowboys
7
13
10
0
30
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
434
Total Plays
60
75
Yards / Play
5.0
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
321
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
34/47(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.20
Rushing Yards
63
113
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
13
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
-21.36
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.02
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
75
--
Penalty EPA
-6.85
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.2
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
14
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
8
RZ Efficiency
3
22
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
10
28
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
6
6
EPA / Rush
22
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
9
20
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U