DETLions
2-7
19
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
035
DALCowboys
2-7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
10
7
0
17
Cowboys
7
0
8
14
29
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
265
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.14
Passing Yards
263
131
Comp/Att
32/47(68%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.30
Rushing Yards
75
134
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
56%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.26
-4.16
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-16
Sack EPA
-6.88
-3.14
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-8.89
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model66.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-98.5
Home QB Adjustment
-89.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
-48.1
Final Difference
121.7
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
J. Kitna
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-89.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
20
26
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
19
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
24
EPA
EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
8
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
8
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U