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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ dolphins week 16, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
4-10
34
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
69°F
22 mph
27
MIADolphins
7-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
69°F
22 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
7
11
28
Dolphins
3
14
7
3
27

Spread

DET logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
275
425
Total Plays
49
83
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.01
Passing Yards
208
271
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
29/44(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.02
Rushing Yards
67
154
Rush Attempts
21
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.57
-9.51
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-2.44
-2.06
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
53
63
Penalty EPA
-6.33
-6.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
110.2
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
Value
Ptile
10/11
-5.2
20
10/25
-6.5
13
09/19
1.3
56
09/26
-0.3
47
10/03
5.3
84
10/10
6.0
87
10/17
-0.4
47
11/14
1.4
57
11/21
1.3
57
11/25
-2.1
35
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
09/26
4.3
78
10/04
0.7
53
10/17
3.2
71
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-1.0
43
11/07
-5.3
16
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-6.6
11
12/12
-9.9
4
12/19
2.2
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Lions logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7

EPA

EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
9
17
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense
Dolphins logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24

EPA

EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
26
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
24
19
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
14
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
38
W
W
O
10/17
-8
L
W
O
10/31
12
W
W
O
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
-2
L
L
U
11/21
-16
L
L
O
11/25
-21
L
L
O
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
4
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
P
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/07
-16
L
L
U
11/14
12
W
W
O
11/18
-16
L
L
U
11/28
16
W
W
O
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/12
4
W
W
U
12/19
-3
L
L
U