DETLions
4-10
34
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
69°F
22 mph
27
MIADolphins
7-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
69°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
7
11
28
Dolphins
3
14
7
3
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
425
Total Plays
49
83
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.01
Passing Yards
208
271
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
29/44(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.02
Rushing Yards
67
154
Rush Attempts
21
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.57
-9.51
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-2.44
-2.06
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
53
63
Penalty EPA
-6.33
-6.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
110.2
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
9
17
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
26
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
24
19
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U