DETLions
1-0
27
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
84°F
7 mph
24
PHIEagles
1-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
84°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
13
0
7
27
Eagles
10
0
7
7
24
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
373
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
246
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
86
127
Rush Attempts
28
30
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
43%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.16
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.67
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
61
30
Penalty EPA
-9.57
+2.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+76.8
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-85.2
Final Difference
112.2
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
16
20
EPA / Rush
27
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
27
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U