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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ eagles week 11, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
6-3
9
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
15 mph
16
PHIEagles
7-2
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
6
0
3
9
Eagles
3
10
0
3
16

Spread

PHI logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
317
272
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
5.3
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.20
Passing Yards
243
124
Comp/Att
14/37(38%)
14/28(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.30
Rushing Yards
74
148
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
13
16
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.19
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-11
Sack EPA
-2.73
-2.36
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
48
78
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-8.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,665
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
26.0
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
01/18
-4.6
19
09/07
-1.9
37
09/14
13.3
99
09/22
2.2
66
09/28
-0.3
48
10/05
2.1
65
10/12
4.6
81
10/20
-4.5
21
11/02
0.0
51
11/09
8.5
95
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Value
Ptile
02/09
6.3
85
09/04
6.5
90
09/14
-3.1
28
09/21
4.9
84
09/28
0.5
55
10/05
-1.6
38
10/09
1.1
59
10/19
4.8
82
10/26
1.9
64
11/10
1.1
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Lions logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
6
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21

EPA

EPA / Play
8
7
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
25
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
25
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
5
8
Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Eagles logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16

EPA

EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
19
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
1
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/18
-14
L
L
O
09/07
-14
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
U
10/05
13
W
W
O
10/12
-13
L
L
U
10/20
15
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/09
22
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/09
18
W
W
O
09/04
4
W
L
U
09/14
3
W
W
U
09/21
7
W
W
O
09/28
6
W
W
O
10/05
-4
L
L
U
10/09
-17
L
L
O
10/19
6
W
W
O
10/26
18
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U