DETLions
6-3
9
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
15 mph
16
PHIEagles
7-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
6
0
3
9
Eagles
3
10
0
3
16
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
272
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
5.3
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.20
Passing Yards
243
124
Comp/Att
14/37(38%)
14/28(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.30
Rushing Yards
74
148
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
16
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.19
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-11
Sack EPA
-2.73
-2.36
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
48
78
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-8.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,665
Home Field
+56.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
26.1
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
9
EPA / Pass
5
6
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
5
3
Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
7
EPA / Pass
12
5
EPA / Rush
22
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U