DETLions
7-5
20
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
27°F
6 mph
34
PHIEagles
7-5
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
27°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
8
0
6
14
Eagles
0
0
6
28
34
Spread
-2.5
Total
PUSH
54
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
482
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
3.9
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
10/27(37%)
11/25(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.06
Rushing Yards
80
301
Rush Attempts
33
48
Yards / Rush
2.4
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.63
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
23
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-13.91
-5.91
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-5.42
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.2
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
25
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
20
6
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6
EPA
EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
5
19
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
12
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
13
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U