DETLions
5-2
22
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
13 mph
21
ATLFalcons
2-5
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
10
12
22
Falcons
14
7
0
0
21
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
291
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
--
213
Comp/Att
24/48(50%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.29
Rushing Yards
60
78
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.88
-7.53
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-3.26
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
85
39
Penalty EPA
-8.52
-4.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
28
EPA / Pass
14
29
EPA / Rush
24
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
11
10
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U