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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ falcons week 8, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
5-2
22
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
13 mph
21
ATLFalcons
2-5
ATL logo
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
10
12
22
Falcons
14
7
0
0
21

Spread

ATL logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
385
291
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
--
213
Comp/Att
24/48(50%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.29
Rushing Yards
60
78
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.88
-7.53
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-3.26
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
85
39
Penalty EPA
-8.52
-4.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-86
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
12/16
-4.9
19
12/22
-6.1
13
12/29
-4.4
23
09/08
8.8
94
09/14
-2.5
32
09/21
-4.9
20
09/28
4.3
79
10/05
-5.7
17
10/12
-4.9
21
10/19
-1.0
43
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
12/15
-1.4
43
12/23
6.9
90
12/29
-4.4
23
09/07
13.1
99
09/14
-4.5
23
09/18
7.6
90
09/28
1.1
58
10/05
2.8
70
10/12
-5.2
18
10/19
-1.8
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Lions logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21

EPA

EPA / Play
21
28
EPA / Pass
14
29
EPA / Rush
24
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Falcons logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1

EPA

EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
11
10
EPA / Rush
22
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
6
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-2
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
12/29
-1
L
L
U
09/08
21
W
W
O
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/21
12
W
W
U
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
1
W
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
1
W
L
O
12/23
-10
L
W
O
12/29
-1
L
W
U
09/07
3
W
W
O
09/14
-14
L
L
U
09/18
42
W
W
O
09/28
-13
L
L
O
10/05
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
U