DETLions
2-11
16
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
6-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
3
3
16
Falcons
0
10
3
7
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
254
Total Plays
68
45
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
207
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.24
Rushing Yards
130
47
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
44%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.88
-3.46
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-3.50
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-2.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
Falcons-7.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+251
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,341
Home Field
+36.5
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+128.6
Home QB Adjustment
-17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-146.1
Market Regression
+37.6
Final Difference
216.4
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
T. Boyle
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-146.1
Value
Ptile
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
4
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
25
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
14
20
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
25
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
29
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-7-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U