DETLions
1-0
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
5 mph
10
NYGGiants
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
0
1
18
Giants
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
270
Total Plays
56
55
Yards / Play
4.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.41
Passing Yards
119
208
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.26
Rushing Yards
138
62
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-5.84
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-3
-31
Sack EPA
-6.85
-7.29
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
50
50
Penalty EPA
-4.91
-0.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+57.5
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26
EPA
EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
12
21
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
21
Yards / Game
22
27
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19
EPA
EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
27
11
EPA / Rush
27
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
20
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U