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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ giants week 6, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
1-4
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
9 mph
28
NYGGiants
3-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
0
10
20
Giants
7
7
7
7
28

Spread

DET logo
+10

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
366
334
Total Plays
72
62
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.14
Passing Yards
302
167
Comp/Att
28/49(57%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.06
Rushing Yards
64
167
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
45%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
20
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.28
-2.67
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-5.25
-2.50
Penalties
11
2
Penalty Yards
91
15
Penalty EPA
-12.32
-1.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Value
Ptile
09/13
-2.5
35
09/20
-2.4
35
09/27
1.3
58
10/04
-3.2
30
10/11
-5.2
20
10/25
-6.5
13
09/19
1.3
56
09/26
-0.3
47
10/03
5.3
84
10/10
6.0
87
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
12/06
-0.6
46
12/13
10.8
98
12/21
6.5
87
12/27
-0.9
44
01/03
-5.1
20
09/12
0.9
54
09/19
-4.1
24
09/26
2.3
64
10/03
-3.4
27
10/10
3.5
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Lions logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
17
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Giants logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
9
19
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24

EPA

EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
27
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
11
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-10
L
W
U
12/13
-45
L
L
O
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/27
-14
L
P
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
W
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
O
10/10
38
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
12/21
33
W
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-37
L
L
O
09/12
13
W
W
O
09/19
-24
L
L
O
09/26
-19
L
L
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
10/10
24
W
W
U