DETLions
1-4
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
9 mph
28
NYGGiants
3-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
0
10
20
Giants
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
334
Total Plays
72
62
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.14
Passing Yards
302
167
Comp/Att
28/49(57%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.06
Rushing Yards
64
167
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
45%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
20
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.28
-2.67
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-5.25
-2.50
Penalties
11
2
Penalty Yards
91
15
Penalty EPA
-12.32
-1.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
19
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24
EPA
EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U