DETLions
9-4
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
1 mph
17
NYGGiants
9-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
3
0
6
Giants
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
300
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
5.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.02
Passing Yards
268
186
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.18
Rushing Yards
56
114
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.58
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.82
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-15
Sack EPA
-1.07
-3.05
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
15
46
Penalty EPA
-0.95
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
24
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
24
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
17
1
Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
30
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
29
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
13
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
23
29
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
19
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Giants
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U