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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ giants week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
9-4
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
1 mph
17
NYGGiants
9-4
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
3
0
6
Giants
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

NYG logo
-4

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
324
300
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
5.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.02
Passing Yards
268
186
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.18
Rushing Yards
56
114
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.58
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.82
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-15
Sack EPA
-1.07
-3.05
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
15
46
Penalty EPA
-0.95
-4.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
10/02
-5.4
14
10/09
1.6
61
10/16
8.1
93
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
2.5
68
11/06
1.5
60
11/20
-0.7
43
11/24
1.6
61
12/04
6.8
89
12/11
-3.1
26
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
Value
Ptile
10/03
-1.2
39
10/09
-4.0
19
10/16
6.5
88
10/23
-1.3
38
11/06
1.8
64
11/14
0.1
49
11/20
1.5
60
11/27
0.2
50
12/04
-3.5
23
12/11
-6.7
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Lions logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
24
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
24
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
17
1
Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Giants logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20

EPA

EPA / Play
28
30
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
29
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
13
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
23
29
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
19
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-3
L
L
U
10/09
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-7
L
L
U
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/04
15
W
W
U
12/11
3
W
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
P
U
10/16
4
W
W
O
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
W
O
11/14
1
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
L
U
11/27
14
W
W
U
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
3
W
W
U