nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ packers week 4, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DET logo
DETLions
0-3
26
TBD
Lambeau Field
52°F
8 mph
28
GBPackers
2-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
52°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
14
6
6
26
Packers
7
14
1
0
22

Spread

DET logo
+14.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
431
261
Total Plays
78
40
Yards / Play
5.5
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.00
Passing Yards
308
169
Comp/Att
34/54(63%)
12/17(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.35
Rushing Yards
123
92
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
59%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
7
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-17.35
-11.56
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-3.67
-3.27
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
102
--
Penalty EPA
-15.50
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+384
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,310
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+22.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
-33.4
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Value
Ptile
12/21
-4.4
19
12/28
4.5
81
09/13
-2.5
35
09/20
-2.4
35
09/27
1.3
58
10/04
-3.2
30
10/11
-5.2
20
10/25
-6.5
13
09/19
1.3
56
09/26
-0.3
47
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
Value
Ptile
11/26
8.4
93
12/07
5.0
82
12/13
-2.8
32
12/20
11.6
98
12/27
0.3
52
01/03
8.5
93
01/10
9.8
96
09/12
-3.5
26
09/19
9.6
97
09/27
9.5
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12

EPA

EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
17
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
9
21
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
11
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
4
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
1
W
L
O
11/26
-22
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
W
U
12/13
-45
L
L
O
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/27
-14
L
P
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
W
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
22
W
W
U
12/07
13
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/20
-1
L
W
O
12/27
38
W
W
O
01/03
26
W
W
U
01/10
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
27
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
L
U