DETLions
0-3
26
TBD
Lambeau Field
52°F
8 mph
28
GBPackers
2-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
52°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
14
6
6
26
Packers
7
14
1
0
22
Spread
+14.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
261
Total Plays
78
40
Yards / Play
5.5
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.00
Passing Yards
308
169
Comp/Att
34/54(63%)
12/17(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.35
Rushing Yards
123
92
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
59%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
7
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-17.35
-11.56
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-3.67
-3.27
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
102
--
Penalty EPA
-15.50
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-15.0
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model88.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+388
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,308
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+22.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
353.3
Model Spread
-15.0
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
9
21
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U