DETLions
1-4
0
TBD
Lambeau Field
46°F
13 mph
26
GBPackers
2-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
46°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
0
0
0
Packers
14
9
3
0
26
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
149
435
Total Plays
48
72
Yards / Play
3.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.47
+0.05
Passing Yards
71
328
Comp/Att
11/25(44%)
29/37(78%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.74
+0.18
Rushing Yards
78
107
Rush Attempts
18
30
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
23
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
0%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.07
-10.16
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-34
-30
Sack EPA
-5.11
-11.77
Penalties
6
13
Penalty Yards
40
130
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-6.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+337
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,316
Home Field
+62.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+50.5
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
-44.1
Market Regression
+34.9
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
D. Culpepper
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-44.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
26
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
25
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
9
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
5
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Packers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-1-6
O/U