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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ packers week 9, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DET logo
DETLions
6-1
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
50°F
15 mph
14
GBPackers
6-2
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
50°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
11
7
0
18
Packers
3
0
3
8
14

Spread

DET logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
261
413
Total Plays
55
63
Yards / Play
4.7
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.07
Passing Yards
137
--
Comp/Att
18/22(82%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.08
Rushing Yards
124
138
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.85
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.09
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
36
67
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-7.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,684
Home Field
+46.1
Base HFA
+42.8
Divisional Adj
-19.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
01/14
1.5
60
01/21
3.2
71
01/28
1.5
59
09/08
-2.2
33
09/15
-2.2
33
09/22
-0.8
43
09/30
4.4
77
10/13
6.3
85
10/20
2.8
69
10/27
-2.9
28
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Value
Ptile
12/31
8.5
95
01/07
7.3
92
01/14
8.2
94
01/20
-1.2
41
09/06
-1.8
36
09/29
4.2
76
10/06
-2.0
34
10/13
5.4
81
10/20
-0.9
42
10/27
-5.0
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7

EPA

EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
6
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6

EPA

EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
8
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
10
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
1
W
L
U
01/21
8
W
W
O
01/28
-3
L
W
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/30
13
W
W
O
10/13
38
W
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
38
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/20
-3
L
W
U
09/06
-5
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
W
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/13
21
W
W
P
10/20
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
L
O