DETLions
6-1
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
50°F
15 mph
14
GBPackers
6-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
50°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
11
7
0
18
Packers
3
0
3
8
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
413
Total Plays
55
63
Yards / Play
4.7
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.07
Passing Yards
137
--
Comp/Att
18/22(82%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.08
Rushing Yards
124
138
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.85
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.09
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
36
67
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-7.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,686
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
-7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
8
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U