DETLions
1-7
18
TBD
Lambeau Field
55°F
7 mph
16
GBPackers
6-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
55°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
6
9
18
Packers
3
0
0
13
16
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
372
Total Plays
64
83
Yards / Play
4.5
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
325
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
35/62(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.03
Rushing Yards
45
47
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
1.7
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.18
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-3.75
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
35
55
Penalty EPA
-3.88
-6.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
Lions+10.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+184
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
-3.6
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.0
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
-11.1
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-30.8
Final Difference
235.0
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U