DETLions
4-8
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
10 mph
27
GBPackers
8-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
3
3
20
Packers
0
4
7
10
21
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
288
Total Plays
78
52
Yards / Play
4.9
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.09
Passing Yards
251
148
Comp/Att
27/45(60%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.26
Rushing Yards
135
140
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
17
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
65%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
11
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.04
-4.71
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-13
-25
Sack EPA
-9.78
-7.97
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
55
50
Penalty EPA
-1.88
-7.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-15.7
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
4
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
26
29
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
4
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
20
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
1
23
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
32
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U