DETLions
11-4
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
27°F
5 mph
30
GBPackers
11-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
27°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
7
7
6
20
Packers
1
7
7
7
22
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
377
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.01
Passing Yards
202
225
Comp/Att
20/41(49%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
9.8
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.66
Rushing Yards
111
152
Rush Attempts
24
38
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.03
-8.00
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-7
Sack EPA
-3.24
-2.37
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
53
40
Penalty EPA
-8.60
-4.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+34.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
-11.6
Market Regression
+22.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
14
Yards / Game
17
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
24
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
8
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
1
EPA
EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
12
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U