DETLions
8-8
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
21°F
4 mph
16
GBPackers
8-8
TBD
Lambeau Field
21°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
3
7
7
20
Packers
6
3
7
0
16
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
291
Total Plays
60
57
Yards / Play
5.4
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.12
Passing Yards
219
188
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.20
Rushing Yards
104
103
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-17
Sack EPA
-1.71
-4.85
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
75
35
Penalty EPA
-6.76
-3.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model65.4%
Spread Pick
Lions+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+45.3
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-51.0
Home QB Adjustment
-25.7
Away QB Adjustment
+25.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
110.6
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-25.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
16
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
4
11
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U