DETLions
1-0
7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
9 mph
24
CARPanthers
1-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
7
0
7
Panthers
0
6
7
11
24
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
315
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.6
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.01
Passing Yards
253
253
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.17
Rushing Yards
70
62
Rush Attempts
18
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.67
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-38
-30
Sack EPA
-6.23
-6.46
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
33
45
Penalty EPA
-4.72
-3.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model63.9%
Spread Pick
Panthers-1.0
Expected Value
+22.2%
Cover Probability
63.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+79.6
Home QB Adjustment
+85.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
-30.5
Final Difference
99.2
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+85.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
20
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
11
EPA
EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
24
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
15
29
Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1
EPA
EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
14
20
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Panthers
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
1-9
O/U